The Irony of History....

Avi Melamed

June 21, 2012

Nasrallah Gets a Taste of his own Medicine
Avi Melamed

While the world continues to witness the ongoing tragedy in Syria, there is another "mini-drama" simultaneously taking place in that country which is no less significant.
On May 22nd reports began to flow in from different sources that Lebanese Shiite pilgrims returning from Iran had been kidnapped inside Syria.

It seems that the sequence of the events was as follows: 
On May 22nd two buses carrying Lebanese men and women entered Syria via the Salama crossing located on the Syrian-Turkish border.  
One bus had the sign "Musa Sadr" and the other had the sign "Al Bader Al Kubra" (read the links for the meaning of those names).
Shortly after crossing into Syrian territory the buses were stopped by a group of armed militants. The gunmen abducted six men on the "Sadr" bus and five men on the "Bader Al Kubra" bus and took them to an unknown location.   The rest of the passengers were detained by the kidnappers for a few hours, and were then allowed to continue on the buses to the Syrian city of Haleb, located about 35 miles from the crossing. That same night those passengers were flown back to Beirut.
When Hezbollah's TV station "Al Manar" broadcast the news about the incident, they interviewed the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, by phone. Nasrallah announced that the Lebanese government is "dealing with the incident" and emphasized that he was working together with the leader of the "Amal" organization (another Lebanese Shiite organization) to release the kidnapped as soon as possible.
A few days after the incident some Arab media outlets reported that the prisoners were expected to be released very soon.  The Lebanese Minister of Interior made a formal statement announcing that the men were going to be imminently released. Some reports even said that the men were already in Turkish territory and on their way back home. 
In spite of the fact that the Turkish government denied the information, the good news resulted in scenes of celebration!  There was joy and revelry in the streets of Al Dahya – Hezbollah's dominion in Beirut (you can read more about Al Dahya in my article "Inside Hezbollah's Private Dominion"), some families even rushed to Beirut's airport to welcome the released captives.
But the kidnapped men were not released. The reports were inaccurate. The celebrations were replaced with bitter disappointment and frustration.
As of the writing of this article, none of the kidnapped men have been released and their whereabouts are unknown.

The identity of the kidnappers is unclear.
Some reports and analysis would lead us to believe that they are part of the "Syrian Free Army" (or the "rebels" as they are often referred to in the international press) that is fighting Assad's forces.  But a spokesperson for the "Syrian Free Army" formally denies those reports.
On May 31, an unknown entity calling itself the "Syrian Rebels – Haleb Region" claimed responsibility for the kidnapping. The group announced that they would release the hostages once Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, publicly and formally apologizes for his support of the Assad regime.
Nasrallah replied via a televised broadcast in which he told the kidnappers that they had three options: "War, Peace or Love."  He urged the captors not to mix the events in Syria with the issue of the kidnapped men.
On June 9, the Al JazeeraTV news network published a short video of the 11 prisoners. This was the first sign of life from them since they had been abducted. The men briefly introduced themselves and declared that they were well and were being treated fairly.  In fact, they described themselves not as a "Kidnapped" but rather as "Guests." During the video one of the "guests" condemned the massacre in the Syrian town of Houla and expressed his support for the struggle of the Syrian people against Assad's regime.
The video ends with a short written message by the captors.  In this message they added a new condition for releasing the men:  In addition to demanding that Nasrallah apologize, they announced that their "guests" (that is the term used by the kidnappers in the announcement) would be released when a civil state is established in Syria so that the prisoners could be tried in a court of law presided over by a new democratic Parliament.  Given the current conditions in Syria, added the kidnappers in their announcement, it is possible that the "guests" may be handed over to one of Syria's neighbors (it is not clear who they are referring to).
Even though the affiliation of the kidnappers is still unclear, there was a report published on June 18th that the commander of the kidnappers was injured and his deputy was killed following a bombardment by Assad's forces next to the Turkish – Syrian border.

What do we know about the kidnapped?
Formal Lebanese spokespeople, including Nasrallah himself, refer to the kidnapped as "Lebanese Shiite Pilgrims."
However, as time goes by, it seems more likely that the prisoners are in fact significant senior military and intelligence officials within Hezbollah.
Reliable information from a variety of sources indicates that at least four of the men are conclusively senior Hezbollah military and intelligence personnel.
The four that have been positively identified are:
Hasan Arzuni:            Hezbollah's Senior Intelligence Official in South Lebanon
Hasan Mahmud:        Hezbollah Senior Weapons and Ammunition Official
Abbas Shueib:           Head of Hezbollah's Military Training Division
Ali Hussein Zreib:      A member of Hezbollah's Jihad Council
In addition, according to information supplied by various sources, but not yet conclusively verified, one of the kidnapped is a person named Ali Safa, the nephew of Hassan Nasrallah.   One of the sources reported that Ali Safa was trying to escape disguising himself as a woman during the takeover of the bus.  It's possible that that piece of information refers to one of the captives, who on the video introduced himself as Ali Husein Abbas.
Hezbollah's practical support of the Assad regime in oppressing the uprising in Syria is no longer a secret (you can read more about Hezbollah's support for Assad in my article "Is War in the Middle East Inevitable?").  Therefore, one can safely assume that these senior Hezbollah people were not innocent pilgrims. They were on a mission to Iran, the goal of which was most likely to coordinate the joint operations of the Assad regime and its major allies – Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
In an interview aired by the Arab TV network Al Jadid, both the reporter and the relatives of Abbas Shueib and Hasan Mahmud, denied the two have any connection with Hezbollah.
A commander from inside the "Free Officers Group" (one of the rebel groups in Syria) announced that five of the kidnapped have already admitted that they are members of Hezbollah, and that they had surveillance devices in their possession when they were abducted.
Reports indicate that Turkey, and perhaps Iran and Qatar, are involved in a diplomatic effort to end the case.  Yet, as of now, none of the men have been released.  Moreover, it seems that the Turkish mediator is not optimistic regarding the chances for a positive and speedy resolution. He was quoted as saying "The kidnappers realize that they have a valuable asset in their hands and they will not give it up."
No one knows how and when this will end.

But one thing is very clear.  This incident, for a variety of reasons, puts Hezbollah and its leader in a very embarrassing situation:
The kidnapping of Hezbollah senior personnel is a massive blow to the organization.

  • Though the kidnapped claim they are being treated fairly, one can assume they are undergoing grueling interrogations and are disclosing valuable information about Hezbollah.             
  • The circumstances of the incident indicate the possibility that the kidnappers had accurate intelligence, in advance, regarding the identity of the passengers on the buses.  If that is the case, it supports other reports that foreign intelligence agencies have deeply infiltrated the ranks of Hezbollah.

This event takes place at the same time that Hezbollah is facing growing difficulties in Lebanon and throughout the region.

  • Reports indicate that the growing challenges Hezbollah is facing inside Lebanon, throughout the region, and on the international stage are generating increasing unrest and criticism of Nasrallah's leadership.
  • Reports also indicate there is a growing power struggle among different groups within Hezbollah. The kidnapping could potentially escalate and intensify the inner struggles and create major turbulence within the organization.

The abduction negatively impacts Nasrallah's status and image in Lebanon, especially among his political base - the Shiites. 

  • Nasrallah is still the unquestionable leader of Hezbollah – for now.  But as time goes by, the families of the kidnapped are losing their patience.  Reportedly, angry relatives of the men being held, blocked the road to the Beirut airport and stoned a Hezbollah convoy.  Hezbollah gunmen, according to one report, opened fire in order to disperse the protestors.

This incident is yet another mile stone in the rapid deterioration of Hezbollah and its leader's image in the Arab world.  

  • That process has intensified over the last year due to Hezbollah's support of the Assad regime.  (In my article "Inside Hezbollah's Private Dominion" I analyze the reasons that have led to the fact that in 2012 the Arab world by large loathes Hezbollah and its leader Nasrallah.)  A clear manifestation of that hatred was made by the Tunisian president in a formal interview he gave recently in which he said that “Hezbollah and Nasrallah are finished in the Arab world.”
  • In the eyes of the Arab world the kidnapped men are part of a murderous system which butchers innocent Syrians. It is no wonder then that many Arabs do not consider them as "kidnapped" but rather as "war criminals" who must face justice.  Many Arabs simply demand they be executed.

The kidnapping incident, coupled with the fact that the kidnapped have not yet been released, may endanger Nasrallah's leadership, because it is putting him in a place he has never been before.  Nasrallah is being publicly humiliated. It is important to understand why this point is significant.                                                            
Nasrallah loved to use the weapon of kidnapping and extortion – and he was good at it. He proved himself a sophisticated, manipulative, cynical operator and he played his cards well.  Nasrallah always took pride in the fact that by using the weapon of kidnapping he was able to force Israel to release Lebanese imprisoned in Israeli jails. He was so skillful and confident in his abilities that he presented himself as the leader who would free not only Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails, but would also free Palestinians imprisoned in Israeli jails.
Moreover, his use of kidnapping and extortion - mostly against Israel – resulted in enormous political dividends for him throughout the Arab world.  Kidnapping Israeli soldiers and civilians made Hassan Nasrallah an icon in the Arab world - he was the leader who brought Israel to its knees time and again and his actions restored the lost Arab pride.
Now the tables are turned and he’s not used to this.  Nasrallah, the serial kidnaper, the one who always made the demands and set the terms, is now on the other side and he’s being publicly humiliated on two fronts.  The abductors are demanding a public apology and they are laying down the terms for the release of his people.
Hassan Nasrallah is getting a taste of his own bitter medicine. The incident is a humiliating slap in his face; he looks helpless, unable to release his own people - dependent upon the good will of mediators and is suffering yet another step in the process of his deteriorating image in the Arab world.
But, Nasrallah is a master of manipulation. He could very well reinvent the incident in a way that could restore his declining image. That depends on two things: How and when this case comes to an end…

AVI MELAMED is an independent Strategic Intelligence Analyst and Regional Expert specializing in the Current Affairs of the Arab and Muslim world and its impact on Israel and the Middle East.

Avi provides intelligence analysis to private clients, diplomats, organizations, Israeli and foreign policy-makers, and media outlets on a range of Israel and Middle East affairs including Israel's Security Environment; Emerging Challenges and Opportunities in the Middle East; The Arab and Muslim World and Its Relationship With Israel, etc.

Avi's tours and briefings, based on years of field experience, policy design and intimate connections throughout the Arab world, offer an insider’s view of the constantly-changing Middle East landscape.  His experiences and connections, coupled with his comprehensive and insightful analysis, provides people the crucial missing link in the puzzle of people's knowledge which greatly enhance their understanding of this complex region.

Avi's IDF service was in a Combat Intelligence Unit.  He holds a B.A. in history and Middle Eastern studies from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, is a graduate of the International Program for Conflict Resolution at the Leonard Davis Institute at George Mason University as well as the Program for Outstanding Leadership at the Carmel Institute for Military Research he also graduated of the JAFI Program for Lay Leadership.

Most of his professional career, both as an Intelligence and Counterterrorism Official and as the youngest-ever Senior Advisor on Jerusalemite Arab Affairs to Mayor Teddy Kollek and to his successor, Mayor Ehud Olmert, was spent in Arab-speaking areas.

After public service Avi founded Mikdam a strategic consulting company.  Simultaneously he entered the field of education; while teaching he founded Idan, a grassroots movement of educators and students empowering educators to recapture their visionary role.

Most recently he established - Israel Speaks Arabic. This unique and unprecedented non-profit initiative uses the internet to present contemporary Israeli society and culture to the Arab world in Arabic.  This step towards opening a dialogue with the Arab world receives hundreds of hits a day from across the Arab world and widened his connections within the Arab world.  Avi hopes to expand this project to include Arabs and Israelis who can engage in constructive dialogue around issues of common interest. 
Through all of Avi’s efforts, as a speaker, an analyst, a writer, and an entrepreneur, he is a bridge builder.  He dedicates himself to enhancing the Arabic, English and Hebrew speaking audience’s comprehensive understanding of the Middle East and of each other.

Fluent in Hebrew, Arabic and English
Media appearances include: 
ABC, Al Jazeera, Alhurra, BBC Arabic, Bloomberg, Elaph, Los Angeles Times, NBC, New Yorker, TVE, Wall Street Journal and more.
Separate and Unequal - Israel's rule in East Jerusalem Harvard University Press, 1999
Ubrusi, Israel, 2010
Avi's articles are translated into many languages and published on web sites around the world. 
His articles in English can be seen on the Times of Israel website as well as (this site was hacked and destroyed and is currently under construction) and his videos in Arabic can be seen at
Client list includes:
AIPAC; American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee; American Jewish Committee USA and Israel; Birthright; Canada Israel Committee; Friends of the IDF; Georgetown University; Harry and Jeanette Weinberg Foundation; Herzeliya Interdisciplinary Center; Israel Border Police Senior Command; Israel Defense Forces; Israel Embassy; Israel Ministry of Defense; Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Israeli Police; Israeli Prison Services; Jewish Agency for Israel; Jewish Community Relations Council; Jewish Council for Public Affairs; Jerusalem Foundation; Jewish Federations of North America; Jewish National Fund; MASA; Peres Center for Peace; Princeton University; The Israel Project; The Network of Israeli Colleges; Stanford University;  Tufts University; University of Michigan; United States Army: World Bank Board of Directors; World Presidents Organization (WPO); Young Presidents Organization (YPO) and more.
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