Sunday, 13th November, 2016
I was in New York last week and wanted to send you a quick postcard while the images and memories of this past week are very fresh in my mind.
You wrote from Karachi, following the first debate, likening Donald Trump to the character of King Louie from the Jungle Book. Well King Louie is now President-Elect Louie!
Listening to the non-stop barrage of coverage, the hyperbole, the navel gazing, but mostly the ‘sell’ of the narrative, it is best to follow the advice of Sherlock Holmes:
"It is a mistake to theorise before one has data, as one twists facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”
The theory being peddled by the media is the following:
There was a big turn out of the ‘deplorables' (White with limited education).
There was a low turnout from the minorities (African Americans, Hispanics, Women).
This caused a swing to racism, xenophobia, and outright bullying all which is mirrored by their candidate.
However, let’s look at the data. In the 2012 election Barack got 65.9m votes, Mitt Romney got 60.9m, and ‘others’ got 1.8m. Last week, although not all votes are yet counted, King Louie will have received 60.7m, Hilary 61.5m with ‘others’ coming in at 6m+.
King Louie got fewer votes than Romney - fewer votes not new ‘deplorable’ votes. The key swing factor is in the 6m ‘others’. Who are they?
Generally ‘others’ are white, educated, liberal and libertarian. The narrative of the rise of the ‘deplorables’ is completely false. The real narrative of this election is the disgust of the ‘others’. This has been a revolt not from the bottom but actually from within the elites.
This is not a sexy, entertaining story, but the implication of a battle within the ruling classes, when fully understood, alters the media frame.