Talk of the Town
The dramatic political events that unfolded in Pakistan over the past two weeks were a focus of Chinese media’s international coverage last week, with a number of outlets publishing long explainer and analysis pieces. In the official media, the tone was clear (and echoed the message from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs): the change of leadership will have little impact on the “iron brotherhood” of China-Pakistan relations. As Global Times wrote, “the fall of an old friend causes one to sigh; the ascent of another old friend causes one to celebrate.”
And indeed there are reasons for China to celebrate Shehbaz Sharif as an “old friend”. As the Global Times pointed out, he is the brother of a former PM who maintained strong ties with China. During his brother’s rule he was head of Pubjab province, the country’s economic powerhouse and home to numerous CPEC projects, including highways, the Lahore Orange Line Metro and transmission lines. While in command of the province, Sharif became known for his “Punjab speed” of effective, technocratic governance, and has already claimed that he will bring “Pakistan speed” governance to Islamabad.
Sharif gave prominent mention to China and the CPEC during his first speech to the Pakistani parliament. In language that echoed that of China’s officials he said, “China has always supported Pakistan and regarded us a friend. The Pakistan-China relationship has been tested and proven unswerving. The new government will accelerate the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.” The speech also gave overtures to strengthening relations with the US, EU and Russia. In another speech to parliament on Saturday April 16, Sharif blamed Pakistan’s ongoing power shortage crisis on the failure of the Khan government to properly see through CPEC power projects, calling out a 1250MW power plant that was supposed to begin operations in 2019 but has yet to begin construction.
The message that China-Pakistan relations will not be impacted by the changing of the guard in Islamabad was echoed across the major Chinese media outlets. What most failed to mention, however, was just how unstable the situation in Pakistan remains. Khan’s Trumpian moves to contest his overthrow, such as calling protestors onto the streets, went mostly unmentioned in the Chinese press - though his claims of American interference appear to have not been taken seriously, particularly after the Pakistani military dismissed the claims.
A long read piece in Sanlian Lifeweek Magazine was one of the few articles to delve into the full complexity of the situation. Quoted in the article, Lin Yiming of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations pointed to the deep economic problems the country faces, and that Khan summarily failed to address. According to Lin, the root of Pakistan’s economic woes is deindustrialisation in the country. While in the 2000s the country attracted a lot of investment and saw exports grow steadily, since 2010 exports and FDI have slumped and resulted in a reliance on foreign imports and a rapid increase in foreign debt. By the end of 2021 debts had reached a record USD120 billion. The result has been Pakistan’s reliance on repeated IMF bailouts. Lin critiques the Khan government for “never establishing a permanent economic policy team to implement long term economic policies” which may have been able to turn the situation around.
The challenge of controlling Pakistan’s debt and negotiating an inevitably unpopular loan deal with the IMF awaits Sharif. In addition, he faces popular opposition from Khan’s supporters and rising tensions with Afghanistan’s Taliban government. Sharif has less than four months to make an impression before the next general election. China’s foreign policy community and BRI architects will be watching closely.
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