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Predictions are just 50/50 guesses. You shouldn't lose sleep over them.
Behavior Gap
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Don't Lose Sleep Over 2013 Predictions

November 30, 2012

Big, Bold Predictions

With a new year around the corner, we need to brace ourselves for the annual guessing game of 2013 predictions. It seems to be an annual tradition now. Over the next few weeks, the “experts” will take center stage on news programs and magazine covers to share their vision of what they think will happen in 2013. But you and I know better.

We know that experts and their predictions aren’t right 100 percent of the time. We know that paying attention to these predictions makes it harder to behave. And we know that we have a hard time resisting these predictions.

Right now it feels like there’s a ton of uncertainty in the world. Will we go over a fiscal cliff? (Depends on Congress.) Will taxes go up? (Probably.) Will Europe figure out its financial mess? (Who knows.)

In the face of this uncertainty, we like how predictions make us feel. We like the sense of control it implies even though we know life can be incredibly random. Then there’s our short memory span.

We’re quick to jump on seemingly accurate predictions. We then anoint the expert who made the predictions with the ability to get it right all the time. In the process, we tend to overlook the bad calls that expert made in the past.

Here’s the thing: Predictions can be fun to talk about, but they shouldn’t drive our decision making. We need to treat them as what they are: a 50/50 guess. So enjoy the holidays and the predictions that come with them, but don’t lose sleep over what may or may not happen in 2013.

Carl
The BAM ALLIANCE
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